Below-average hurricane season predicted for Central Pacific region

It appears the Central Pacific will experience another below-average hurricane season, its third in a row.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Wednesday predicted that the region will see two to four tropical cyclones during the hurricane season that starts June 1.

During a news conference in Honolulu, forecasters said there’s a 60% chance of a below-normal hurricane season, with a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-­normal season.

The Central Pacific typically sees four to five named storms each year from June to November. Last year only one storm entered the Central Pacific basin, while just two were seen the year before.

The forecast of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is for Hawaii to continue to experience La Nina conditions throughout the summer for the third consecutive year.

La Nina is linked to lower-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific and can affect weather patterns across the globe.

Generally, the large-scale circulation during La Nina is characterized by a large-scale sinking motion of air over the Eastern and Central Pacific, which tends to suppress hurricane activity, according to scientists.

National Weather Service hydrologist Kevin Kodama said that with the La Nina pattern, Hawaii can also expect a drier-than-average summer with drought conditions likely to intensify and expand over most of the islands. Also expect an early wildfire season — starting in June rather than late July or early August.

News of worsening drought could be bad news for Honolulu residents hoping to avoid mandatory water restrictions due to the Red Hill contamination crisis.

Kodama said Kauai is in better shape when it comes to drought, but that is unlikely to last.

“Maybe later in the summer they’re going to be in just as bad shape as the rest of the state,” he said.

Chris Brenchley, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said the ongoing La Nina pattern is likely to generate plenty of vertical wind shear — localized, often-high altitude winds that can cut into, slow down or change the direction of large weather systems.

The persistent and strong wind shear, he said, will make it more difficult for hurricanes to develop or move into the Central Pacific.

Despite the forecast, Brenchley cautioned Hawaii residents to prepare now for the upcoming hurricane season, which lasts through Nov. 30.

“It only takes one wandering into the vicinity of the state to cause a tremendous amount of potential impact,” he said.

Two years ago, when only two tropical cyclones appeared during a La Nina season, Hurricane Douglas gave Oahu a scare when it approached the state to the east and appeared to set its sights squarely on the island.

But the powerful storm ended up scooting by 30 miles to the north — the closest a hurricane had come to Oahu since before Hurricane Dot, which passed about 60 miles southwest of the Waianae Coast before making landfall on Kauai in August 1959.

“The impacts from that could have been very significant if we had seen a slight jog of that hurricane to the south,” Brenchley said.

Only one named storm entered the Central Pacific region last year. Former Tropical Storm Jimena entered the Central Pacific as a tropical depression Aug. 6 and weakened into a remnant low on the same day, although heavy rains from the system did reach the islands a few days later.

Dennis Hwang, disaster preparation expert with the University of Hawaii, urged islanders to prepare now by making an emergency plan and assembling a kit of food, water and other necessities. Also consider retrofitting your house with hurricane clips to prevent your roof from flying away in a hurricane.

“The best time to prepare is off-hurricane season, because if you’re going to retrofit your house, it will take you two months to line up a contractor. You cannot do it when there’s a hurricane watch or warning coming in,” Hwang said.

This year is the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki, the major hurricane that slammed into Kauai on Sept. 11, 1992, with sustained winds of 145 mph.

“Those residents who experienced the impacts from Hurricane Iniki still remember those experiences today — the incredible destructive power that it brought to their island,” Brenchley said.

“So throughout the state we must remain aware that there’s a possibility of a hurricane — and that it’s a real possibility every hurricane season regardless of the outlook.”

Officials said the successful launch of the GOES-18 observation satellite in March will help forecasters better track tropical cyclones and other storms in the Pacific Ocean this year.

In addition, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is tripling its operational supercomputing capacity for weather and climate, allowing for higher-resolution models that can handle larger ensembles, advanced physics and improved data assimilation.

“This massive boost along with better science will allow for forecast model upgrades for years to come,” the agency said.