Hawaii COVID surge to culminate in June, University of Hawaii researchers forecast

A group of University of Hawaii researchers forecasts the current COVID-19 surge will peak sometime in June.

The Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group, a voluntary partnership of epidemiologists and data scientists, on Monday said it expected daily, new reported cases in Honolulu to peak at 3,500 to 4,000 sometime in the first three weeks of June.

“While it is difficult to assess accurately the situation due to speculations on the amount of reported tests and therefore test positivity, all counties are currently on a surge for both cases and hospitalizations,” said HiPAM in its summary.

HiPAM noted that vaccine fading and reinfections are adding to the current BA.2 surge, and that the latter might lead to another follow-up surge in July. It also factored in the dropping of mitigation such as the state’s mask mandate and Safe Travels program.

The omicron subvariant BA.2 currently makes up the majority of coronaviruses circulating in the state, although another descendant, BA.2.12.1, is gaining ground, at about 15% as of late April, according to the latest state variant report available.

BA.2 is more contagious than the original omicron variant, BA.1, while BA.2.12.1 is thought to be about 1.3 times more transmissible than BA.2.

HiPAM said hospitalizations are also increasing as a consequence of high transmission, although there is no indication of a significant surge in severe cases or in intensive care units.

In the worst-case scenario, HiPAM forecasts hospitalizations in Honolulu to surpass 200 a day by the end of the month, and above 225 in late June. On Wednesday the state reported 126 patients with COVID-19 were in hospitals, with five in intensive care and three on ventilators.

Despite the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention raising Kauai, Honolulu and Maui counties to red, high-risk community levels last week, county mayors are not immediately reinstating mask mandates.

Under CDC guidelines, those living in high-risk communities should wear a well-fitting mask indoors in public and on public transportation, regardless of vaccination status.

Hawaii County remains a yellow, medium-risk community, where wearing a mask is a matter to be discussed with a health care provider for those who are immunocompromised or at high risk for severe disease.

On Monday, Hawaii County Mayor Mitch Roth called on residents of the island to practice “mindful masking” at large gatherings, grocery stores, in bars and restaurants when not actively eating and drinking, and aboard public transportation.

But Hawaii County has no mandate requiring the use of masks, and the mayor said, “We don’t want to move back to a period of mandates to help control the spread.”

Individual businesses and organizations, however, can set their own COVID-19 policies and guidelines.

The Waikiki Aquarium, for instance, has reinstated mask mandates at its facility to align with University of Hawaii policy. UH will require face masks in classrooms, shared laboratories and other instructional spaces for summer sessions.

Foodland on Monday once again required its employees to wear face masks in stores due to rising case counts and the red status. Mask-wearing for customers, however, will continue to be encouraged but not required.

“For high-risk areas with ‘red’ status, the CDC recommends mask-wearing for residents when indoors in public places,” said Foodland in a statement. “Given the CDC’s recommendations, we believe taking this action now is important to ensure the safety of our employees.”

Dr. Scott Miscovich of Premier Medical Group said it makes sense to reinstate an indoor mask mandate in the midst of this surge.

“Plain and simple, we should have an indoor mask mandate reinstituted,” he said. “It’s clear that CDC in their guidance says we’re in red, and we know we are just beginning to just see the increase in surge.”

The CDC data shows this, he said, and the state Department of Health has acknowledged case counts are likely five to seven times higher when home test results are accounted for.

Based on his own observations, fewer people at grocery stores are wearing masks as the weeks pass, following the end of Hawaii’s indoor mask mandate March 25.

“Every day the masks go down, and with the massive surge occurring in our state, the masks should be going up,” he said.

Miscovich said he foresees at least another six weeks of the surge, and he expects hospitalizations to continue rising as well, followed by deaths.

And that won’t be the end of it.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control recently reclassified omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, first identified in South Africa and detected in the U.S., as variants of concern. The level of “immune escape,” or ability to do an end run around the immune response, has been significant in both.

“We already have predetermined, based on the past two years of data across the world, another surge in the fall that will end up into the holiday period,” Miscovich said. “That’s just predictable based on the epidemiology and science of what we’ve seen.”